8 Trends to LEVERAGE in 2024
I’ve been thinking about predictions lately.
Each January sees a deluge of predictions for the coming year, but I noticed an interesting shift this past January 2023. Last January, the “predictions lists” were full of uncertainty. After all, “no one can know the future for certain” was the common refrain.
I think coming out of the pandemic made a lot of leaders hesitant.
But I don’t think the value of predictions is in their accuracy. I would argue that predictions are even more important in uncertain times – not because they are certain, but because predictions help us humans do a few things:
Predictions cause us to pay attention – to notice what is happening.
When we pay attention, we become aware of broader trends.
When we are aware of trends, we can perceive when a trend might impact us.
When we perceive a trend might affect us, we can investigate and seek to understand what is happening.
Once we understand what is happening, we can decide whether and how to take action.
Predictions & Leading Innovation in 2024
I call this process the Imago Loop. I’ve noticed that leaders who are particularly good at leading growth through innovation go through a process.
Imago is Latin for “image”. It’s a word picture - a vision of something that will be, but does not yet exist. And so the Imago Loop is about that journey from Seeing to Perceiving to Understanding to Doing… and the cycle begins again.
I’m constantly monitoring trends. I continually ask, “Is this trend relevant to my readers?”
8 Trends to Leverage in 2024
Let’s look at eight trends that I believe should be on your radar and are worth seeking to understand and leverage in 2024.
Trend to Leverage #1
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
AI will reach the peak of the hype cycle in 2024, leading to both disappointment and the emergence of more productive and effective uses of AI.
Last January, my first prediction was, “Artificial intelligence will enable more leaders and organizations to work more effectively and efficiently in 2023.”
I had no idea how big of a year AI would have. ChatGPT was unknown then, and I did not foresee the explosion of generative AI.
I believe we’ll hit the peak of hype around Artificial Intelligence this year. This means there will inevitably be a lot of disappointment and disillusionment as people realize that the technology is not the answer to all of our problems (and it comes with its own set of problems, as any new technology does).
But along with that disappointment, there will be tremendous bright spots and productive breakthroughs. On the whole, AI will be used to increase effectiveness, productivity, creativity, and efficiency, improve customer and donor experience, and enhance communications.
I’m optimistic about how leaders will be able to utilize AI in 2024. Next week’s Wave Report will be focused on leveraging AI, so stay tuned.
💡 Takeaway: The hype around Artificial Intelligence will peak, which means so will the disappointment and some level of disillusionment. But this is the good news, as the more productive uses of the technology will begin to emerge from the hype. 2024 will prove to be a productive year.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #2
THE SUBSCRIPTION ECONOMY:
Subscriptions will continue to mature, with a focus on creating lasting value, leading to consolidation and more valuable subscriptions.
The Subscription Economy has been exploding for the past decade. Much has been made about the rapid growth of subscription products and businesses – as of the last Subscription Economy Index report, subscription-oriented businesses outperformed the S&P500 by 4X over the previous 11 years.
But 2023 was a year of stabilizing – the explosive growth in subscriptions since the onset of the pandemic gave way to many cancellations of nonessential subscriptions. The Subscription Economy is still growing, but as the industry matures, so will customers’ expectations of receiving lasting ongoing value.
💡 Takeaway: The Subscription Economy will continue to mature, with a focus on creating lasting ongoing value rather than subscribing to everything, leading to consolidation, fewer and larger subscription businesses, and more mature business models. Consumers will win because subscriptions will be forced to provide more ongoing value.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #3
SUBSCRIPTION GIVING:
Recurring giving will be a leading area of income growth for charities and will continue to counter the downward trends in single-gift philanthropy.
While the Subscription Economy is beginning to mature and growth is likely to slow, nonprofits are just beginning to take advantage of recurring giving in a subscription world.
Subscription giving will be a bright spot of growth in the fundraising space, providing opportunities for organizations that learn from the subscription economy.
I’ll have a lot more to say on this in the coming months, and it is something I’m very bullish on for nonprofit organizations and leaders.
(As an aside, helping organizations grow sustainer giving in the Subscription Economy is my favorite thing to do. We do this primarily through conducting Sustainer Growth Assessments and developing Action Plans. If you want to grow your sustainer program in 2024, feel free to contact me, and we can explore if there is a fit.)
💡 Takeaway: The Subscription Economy has led to the rise of recurring giving causes that matter to donors. Subscription Giving will continue to grow in 2024 as nonprofits learn to take advantage of the trend.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #4
DIGITAL MEDIA:
Disruption in paid digital advertising will increase, with rising costs and changes in targeting and measurement.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” for digital media this past few years. First, it’s exploded and led to tremendous growth since the pandemic. But at the same time, it’s undergone significant disruption as well.
Costs are increasing, leading to rising costs to acquire a donor or customer through paid digital media.
At the same time, measurement is getting more difficult with changes made by major platforms like Meta, Apple, and, most recently, Google, which started to turn off third-party cookie-based tracking this week.
Last, targeting audiences is becoming more complicated than ever before. The elimination of third-party cookies is a major concern since that’s what the vast majority of online advertising still uses to target individuals.
💡 Takeaway: Disruption in paid digital advertising will increase as acquisition costs go up, while measurement and targeting methods are forced to change by platforms like Google, Apple, and Meta.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #5
OWNED DIGITAL:
Owned digital assets like email lists and websites will become more important as first-party data gains significance.
Every few years, someone declares that websites and email are dead. For example, they see what’s happening on social media and announce, “Everything has moved to [platform X]!”
Inevitably, “innovative” organizations decide they no longer need silly things like websites or email. I remember the last significant example of this when brands like Skittles took down their website and replaced it with only social media accounts.
The problem with this is that organizations are then beholden to the whims and fancies of social media and technology countries. Generally, it doesn’t turn out well – usually when the platform starts asking the organization to pay to reach its own audience.
In 2024, with digital media going through disruption, it will be as important as ever to build your own audience to places on the internet that you OWN. That starts with your website and email list and increasingly includes your phone and mobile messaging list.
💡 Takeaway: Owned digital assets, such as email lists, websites, and phone/text lists, are becoming increasingly important as first-party data gains significance over third-party digital disruptions.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #6
REVENUE DIVERSIFICATION:
Organizations will prioritize diversifying income streams and innovation to mitigate the risks of being too reliant on one revenue source or program.
This is another cyclical trend – organizations tend to go from being “all-in” on one source of revenue to realizing the massive risk inherent in having all of one's eggs in one metaphorical basket.
In 2024, leaders will pursue ways to diversify their revenue to avoid overreliance on one source. We see this in the business world as formerly digital-only direct-to-consumer companies diversify into physical retail. At the same time, streaming subscriptions like Netflix have added advertising-supported tiers to bolster and diversify revenue.
Similarly, nonprofit organizations in 2024 will seek to build resilient and diverse giving models. As mentioned above, some of that will be focused on the rise of recurring giving programs, but others will still invest in growing mid-donor programs, grants and foundations, major giving, or mass giving. The focus will depend on the organization, but the common denominator will be a desire not to be overreliant on one type of income.
(As an aside, there are times when heavily reliant on one type of funding is desirable. Often in times of rapid growth. We’ll discuss this in a future Wave Report.)
💡 Takeaway: Charities and businesses will prioritize diversifying revenue streams and innovation instead of relying solely on one product or income source.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #7
MOBILE COMMERCE:
Mobile commerce, particularly digital wallet payments, will continue to grow, broadening consumer payment preferences.
In the digital world, it’s often the payment platforms that drive many other trends. Not too long ago, donors and consumers feared using their credit cards online for fear of fraud. Even more recently, the idea of buying a product or making a donation related to your Facebook presence was unheard of. It's the same for mobile donations, which started with Text to Give, which was a crude way of giving $5 to the charity of your choice through your cell carrier.
The common denominator is that as payment technology matures and consumers become comfortable with that technology, it tends to be the forerunner of many advances.
In 2023, for the first time in the US, people spent more time with mobile devices than on a PC, laptop, or table.
Additionally, as of 2023, more than 50% of the US population have used a digital wallet like Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo, Cash App, or Paypal to make a payment.
Above: More than half of mobile phone users used a mobile wallet to complete a transaction at least once a month in 2023, signaling a coming shift in the importance of mobile payments.
Combined with the data on mobile wallet usage, it’s clear we are on the cusp of another tipping point when it comes to mobile engagement and giving.
💡 Takeaway: Mobile commerce, particularly digital wallet payments like Apple Pay and Venmo, will grow as consumers shift towards these payment options. Nonprofits will want to watch this closely and ensure these alternative payment methods are available.
Trend to Leverage in 2024 #8
GENERATIONAL SHIFTS:
Younger generations will increasingly shape the trends and preferences for years to come.
Another major shift happened in 2023, one that hasn’t been getting much press. For the first time, more than 50% of the population is now made up of Millennials and younger (Gen Z and Gen Alpha).
In 2024, Millennials, Gen Z, and younger (often called Gen Alpha) comprise 57% of the population.
It’s hard to overestimate what this shift will mean in the coming years. Millennials are the first generation to grow up with the Internet. Gen Z hardly remembers a time before the iPhone.
These younger generations will shape trends and preferences for years to come. This impact has already been felt in the consumer sector and will be felt among nonprofits in 2024 and beyond.
For those of you fundraisers – while nonprofit donor files will continue to be dominated by 60-year-old donors, think about this – by 2025, a 60-year-old donor will be a Gen X (born 1965-1980).
The oldest Millennial turns 43 this year, and the oldest Gen Xer turns 59. They are your next gen donors.
💡 Takeaway: With more than half the population being Millennial or younger, the world will increasingly be shaped by Millennials and Gen Z. This has implications for the adoption of technology, for culture, and, yes, fundraising.
I’ll dive deeper into several of these topics in the coming weeks and months. But I hope I’ve helped you take notice of some things that are going on that you should pay attention to.
Until next week… Surfs Up! 🌊
- Dave
About the Author | Dave Raley
Consultant, speaker, and writer Dave Raley is the founder of Imago Consulting, a firm that helps non-profits and businesses create profitable growth through sustainable innovation. He’s the author of a weekly trendspotting report called The Wave Report, and the co-founder of the Purpose & Profit Podcast — a show about the ideas at the intersection of nonprofit causes and for-profit brands.
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